[16:38] <Jumpp> The Bush White House aggressively browbeat the CIA.

[16:39] <Jumpp> Cheney went down there all the time to twist arms.

[16:39] <Jumpp> An official as high as Cheney intervening at that low a level is

unprecedented.

[16:40] <Jumpp> The Bush Admin idealogues were convinced that the State Dept adn the

CIA were a bunch of softheaded liberal status-quo-protecting sissies.

[16:40] <Jumpp> They set up a special commission inside the white house and fed them

raw intelligence data.

[16:40] <Jumpp> These guys were political appointees, and they produced the

conclusions that the CIA was reluctant to give.

[16:40] <veenu> wow I didnt know that

[16:41] <Jumpp> CIA was always hedging. We "think" hussein "probably" has this. We

think that report is unreliable. We think that source is compromised. We think

that defector will say whatever he thinks his interrogators want to hear.

[16:41] <Jumpp> So they set up Doug Feith and some political cronies in the "office

of special projects" to bypass the career intelligence analysts at CIA.

[16:41] <Jumpp> This is called "stovepiping."

[16:42] <Jumpp> That's when you bypass the analysts and cherry-pick the raw data to

support your foreordained conclusion.

[16:42] <veenu> and they even have a name for it

[16:42] <Jumpp> The Bush people did it. And it's well documented because they were

PROUD of it befor ethe war.

[16:42] <Jumpp> They were shouting to anyone who'd listen that the State Department

and CIA were a bunch of dictator-appeasing peaceniks, and it was their intention to

turn it around and get them to recognize the threat that Hussein presented.

[16:43] <Jalynfane> I can't wait for the Admin to turn it around and blame the CIA

for the intel

[16:43] <Jumpp> Right-wing columnists picked up the line and interviewed lots of

administration people, then wrote columns berating the CIA and State for having

their heads in the sand.

[16:43] <Jumpp> They're doing that now.

[16:43] <Jumpp> But Tenet is pushing back.

[16:43] <Jalynfane> Wait, i think they did already

[16:43] <Tharkis> jalyn, they're doing that now

[16:43] <Jumpp> And thus we have the Plame affair.

[16:43] <Jalynfane> My sarcasm was to slow

[16:43] <Jumpp> This whole AWOL thing is just a sideshow.

[16:44] <Jumpp> It's gonna get blown off the front pages as soon as the Plamegate

grand jury starts handing down indictments.

[16:44] <veenu> the democrats are holding back until the real elections I guess

[16:44] <Jumpp> Which I expect will be in the next couple months.

[16:44] <Jumpp> The AWOL stuff is sketchy and reveals bad character and some recent

coverups. But that's all.

[16:45] <Jumpp> The Plame thing is orders of magnitude worse.

[16:45] <Naydien> Plame?

[16:45] <Jumpp> That one's a REAL scandal, not just juice for politics junkies.

[16:45] <Jumpp> Okay. I'll make this quick:

[16:45] <Naydien> I probably know of it, just not by that nickname

[16:45] <Jumpp> During the run-up to the war, Cheney asked the CIA if a report he'd

seen was reliable.

[16:46] <Jumpp> The report indicated that Iraq had tried to buy a kind of processed

uranium (yellowcake) from Niger.

[16:46] <Jumpp> If true, it'd be clear evidence of Hussein's nuclear program.

[16:46] <Jumpp> So the CIA sent someone to check it out.

[16:46] <Jumpp> They sent Joe Wilson.

[16:46] <veenu> how did they "send"

[16:46] <Jumpp> He's a former ambassador to both Iraq and Niger, and had been in Iraq

during the first gulf war.

[16:47] <Jumpp> He knew lots of people in the area, and he went unofficially to ask

some questions and examine some records.

[16:47] <Jumpp> He had lots of friends in the Nigerian ministry that controlled the

uranium mines.

[16:47] <Jumpp> And he found, pretty conclusively, that the report was soggy

bullshit. He came home and reported as much to his CIA debriefer.

[16:48] <Jumpp> This wasn't what the administration wanted to hear, so in the State

of the Union address, they reported the Niger Yellowcake story anyway.

[16:48] <Jumpp> Since their own intelligence agency was telling them it was bullshit,

they phrased it funny.

[16:48] <Jumpp> Bush said "The British have learned that Iraq tried to buy

Yellowcake..."

[16:48] <veenu> wow

[16:48] <Jumpp> Because the British DID think the report was genuine.

[16:48] <Jalynfane> Because we told them it was?

[16:48] <Jumpp> No, apparently they dug it up first.

[16:49] <Jumpp> Now, we never ever ever make policy on the basis of someone else's

intelligence. That is American policy.

[16:49] <Jalynfane> Correct

[16:49] <Jumpp> We check everything ourselves. Always.

[16:49] <Jumpp> This is longstanding religion in the intelligence & policy community.

It's just not done.

[16:49] <Jumpp> Anyway, that went into the SOTU anyway.

[16:49] <Jalynfane> You need a radio show dude, for real.

[16:50] <Jumpp> You may recall that that claim became controversial.

[16:50] <veenu> amen jaly

[16:50] <Jumpp> It's the famous "sixteen words."

[16:50] <Jumpp> Joe Wilson, the guy the CIA sent, was the one who blew it open.

[16:50] <Jumpp> He found a reporter and told him that the yellowcake story was

bullshit, and that he knew because he was the guy who was sent to check it out, and

that Cheney KNEW he said it was bullshit.

[16:50] <Jumpp> This became a pretty ugly scandal.

[16:51] <veenu> OMG this is the guy with the WIFE

[16:51] <veenu> I just googled it!

[16:51] <Jalynfane> Oh wow, really?

[16:51] <Jalynfane> New ballpark, this gonna get oogly

[16:51] <veenu> I hope bush's admin is screwed over this.

[16:51] <veenu> I mean wow.

[16:52] <Jumpp> Oh, I'm just getting started. Vee's right.

[16:52] <Jumpp> Anyway, Wilson burned the administration.

[16:52] <Jumpp> So they burned back.

[16:52] <Jumpp> See, Wilson's wife is CIA.

[16:52] <Jumpp> She was giving lots of briefings at the White House.

[16:52] <Jumpp> She wasn't always doing that job.

[16:53] <Jumpp> She was working deep-cover on WMD proliferation for a long time.

[16:53] <Jalynfane> clandestine, yeah

[16:53] <Jumpp> But CIA thinks that Aldritch Ames gave her up.

[16:53] <Jumpp> So about the time they debriefed Ames, they quit exposing her

(Valerie Plame) on overseas assignments.

[16:53] <veenu> so CIA must hate bush admin because of this too

[16:53] <Jumpp> She still worked on WMD, but back at home now.

[16:53] <Jumpp> However, once a NOC, always a NOC.

[16:54] <veenu> NOC?

[16:54] <Jumpp> Non-official cover.

[16:54] <veenu> ok

[16:54] <Jalynfane> Non offical c.. yeah

[16:54] <Jumpp> There are two kinds of CIA cover. Official cover and non-official.

[16:54] <Jumpp> Official cover is common. You're really CIA, but you're posing as an

embassy attache, or some other government official.

[16:54] <Jumpp> Your status as a spy is frequently an open secret.

[16:55] <Jumpp> In Paris, say, the identity of the CIA station chief at the embassy

will be well-known among the cocktail party set.

[16:55] <veenu> ok I get it

[16:55] <Jumpp> Non-official cover is the james bond shit.

[16:55] <veenu> haha

[16:55] <Jumpp> The "if you're captured we'll deny we know who you are"

[16:55] <Jumpp> Anwyay, that's what Plame was.

[16:56] <Jumpp> So. The White house is pissed at Joe Wilson and they need to

discredit his story.

[16:56] <Jumpp> So.

[16:56] <Jumpp> Someone in the WH decides to leak to the press that Wilson's

assignment was hack-job nepotism and he only got the assignment because his wife

was CIA.

[16:57] <Jumpp> They call six reporters.

[16:57] <Jalynfane> Cause that somehow makes the data irrelavant

[16:57] <Jalynfane> [sp]

[16:57] <Jumpp> Five want no part of the story. They're not going to help the

government punish a whistleblower.

[16:57] <Jumpp> But the sixth, Bob Novak, runs the story.

[16:57] <veenu> wow

[16:57] <veenu> who is novak again, I heard that name

[16:57] <Jumpp> Sun-Times columnist and very visible pundit.

[16:57] <veenu> oh yeah

[16:58] <Jumpp> You'll see him on CNN a lot, parroting administration talking points

in a whiny voice.

[16:58] <Jumpp> Old grumpy guy who they trot out any time they need someone to slam a

Democrat.

[16:58] <Jumpp> Anyway, shit immediately hits the fan.

[16:58] <Jumpp> Because Wilson's wife isn't just "at CIA." She's a bloody NOC, and

revealing her identity is a felony.

[16:59] <veenu> wow

[16:59] <Jumpp> Someone made a terrible error.

[16:59] <Jumpp> It's not clear if the leaker knew she was a NOC or not. That remains

fuzzy.

[17:00] <veenu> so where does all this stand right now?

[17:00] <Jumpp> Some argue that she was probably seen at the white house a fair bit

and her husband is famous anyway and her identity was an open secret.

[17:00] <Jumpp> Some argue that whoever leaked it HAD to know she was a NOC.

[17:00] <Jumpp> Where it stands now:

[17:00] <Jumpp> The CIA gathered up a bunch of evidence and dumped it in the Justice

Department's lap, demanding an investigation.

[17:01] <Jumpp> Justice sat on it for awhile, then started moving when the CIA

started leaking details to reporters to prod them along.

[17:01] <Jalynfane> I hope they burn some one with that

[17:01] <Jalynfane> Revealing the NOC I mean

[17:01] <Jumpp> Ashcroft was personally overseeing the investigation. The President

said that he wanted to get to the bottom of it but opined that it was unlikely they

would and that "leaks happen."

[17:02] <Jumpp> Note the brazen spin here: A leak is a leak.

[17:02] <veenu> hah

[17:02] <Jalynfane> Yeah, no doubt.

[17:02] <Jumpp> The Bush line is that the real crime was someone leaking to a

reporter.

[17:02] <Jumpp> The fact that they leaked secrets that threaten national security is

irrelevant. THat they leaked anything at all was the bad stuff.

[17:02] <Jumpp> Anyway, around December, Ashcroft recused himself from the

investigation.

[17:03] <veenu> recused?

[17:03] <veenu> opposite of excuse?

[17:03] <Jumpp> He handed the whole thing over to a Pete Fitzgerald, a federal

prosecutor from Chicago.

[17:03] <Jumpp> He stepped awya from it.

[17:03] <veenu> ok

[17:03] <Jumpp> The only reason he could or would do this would be if he had personal

ties to a target of the investigation.

[17:04] <Jumpp> So it's pretty clear that some time in December, one of his

subordinates at Justice notified Ashcroft that so-and-so was now a suspect, and

Ashcroft has financial or significant personal/political ties to so-and-so, and was

forced to step off.

[17:04] <veenu> eep

[17:04] <Jumpp> As I write these words, a Grand Jury is sitting in Washington,

hearing testimony behind closed doors.

[17:04] <veenu> and when will we know?

[17:05] <veenu> what is this trial called?

[17:05] <Jumpp> There's no trial yet.

[17:05] <Jumpp> The grand jury is a secret proceeding.

[17:05] <Jumpp> We know about it because while all the attorneys and jurors and

judges are sworn to secrecy, witnesses can say whatever they like.

[17:05] <Jumpp> I should say the prosecutors are sworn to secrecy.

[17:06] <Jumpp> The grand jury has been chugging along for several weeks now.

[17:06] <Jumpp> Everything up to now has been, pretty much, fact.

[17:06] <Jumpp> Now we move on to some hearsay.

[17:06] <veenu> woohoo gossip!

[17:06] <Jumpp> Word is the prosecutors are about done interviewing everyone involved

except the Six reporters.

[17:07] <Jumpp> And that the reporters will be subpoenaed soon. That is, they'll be

compelled to testify before the grand jury.

[17:07] <Jumpp> At which point they'll be asked to name the person who called them

and gave them Plame's name.

[17:07] <Jumpp> They'll likely invoke privilege, which invocation will have no legal

force for a variety of reasons, and they'll either sing or go to jail.

[17:07] <veenu> deepthroat!

[17:08] <veenu> would all 6 invoke privilege?

[17:08] <Jumpp> They could try, but it won't have any legal force.

[17:08] <Jumpp> There are a variety of reasons why, but here are the two big ones:

[17:09] <Jumpp> 1. If the prosecutors can show that they've exhausted every other

avenue of inquiry and that they're only asking the reporters to confirm what they

already know, the reporters legally have to talk. The prosecutors have been

planning for specifically this.

[17:09] <Jumpp> And their whole strategy has been built on showing that they've

talked to everyone else first and are only reluctantly at the end turning to the

reporters.

[17:10] <Jumpp> 2. Word has it the prosecutors have been getting everyone involved to

sign documents that waive privilege.

[17:10] <veenu> hmm

[17:10] <Jalynfane> so that the reporters will need to also?

[17:11] <Jumpp> So any reporter who wants to invoke privilege gets hit from two

directions: First, you can't in this case. Second, even if you could, your leaker

has already waived it.

[17:11] <veenu> so they cant plead the "5th"?

[17:11] <Jumpp> They cannot.

[17:11] <Salabak> yeah FBI has been asking higher ups to sign waivers in the

confidentiallity agreements

[17:11] <Jumpp> The 5th amendment protects you from self-incrimination.

[17:11] <Tharkis> nothing the reporters can say would be "self incriminating"

[17:11] <Jalynfane> I don't think you can plead the fifth in a grand jury indictment

[17:11] <Jumpp> The reporters aren't suspects and have no constitutional right to

refuse to testify on the grounds that they could incriminate themselves.

[17:11] <veenu> ah not incriminating some dude

[17:11] <Tharkis> they'd be testifying against another, not themselves

[17:11] <veenu> ah ah.

[17:11] <Jumpp> Further, the reporters would be offered immunity in return for their

testimony if that's all it took to get htem to sing.

[17:12] <Jumpp> And of the six, only Novak did anything illegal anyway.

[17:12] <Jumpp> The five who didn't repeat the story didn't commit a crime.

[17:12] <veenu> good guys

[17:12] <Jumpp> So the grand jury is about done.

[17:12] <veenu> guys (including gals in that usage)

[17:12] <Jumpp> And this is all about to explode onto the front page.

[17:12] <Tharkis> heh why wouldnt i be supprised if the leak to the reporters turned

out to be ashcroft or someone working under his direction

[17:12] <Jumpp> One of two things will happen.

[17:12] <Jumpp> 1. Indictments (formal charges) will be handed down.

[17:12] <Tharkis> maybe rumsfeld

[17:12] <Jumpp> or

[17:12] <Jumpp> 2. A reporter will be called to testify.

[17:13] <Jumpp> Either will generate a blizzard of press.

[17:13] <Jumpp> Also, it's pretty well-known who the leaker is:

[17:13] <veenu> hah

[17:13] <Jumpp> Scooter Libby, a senior Cheney staffer.

[17:13] <Jumpp> Maybe his chief of staff.

[17:13] <veenu> with a name like that he wont last long even in white colar prison

[17:13] <Jumpp> Widely regarded in the capitol as a political hatchet-man and

nobody's surprised it's him.

[17:13] <Jumpp> He's a political guy.

[17:13] <Jalynfane> Ashcroft or Rumsfield are not dumb, they would have no direct

involvement in chatting with reporters

[17:14] <Jumpp> If you watch the West Wing, Libby is Josh Lyman.

[17:14] <veenu> ah, but we like Josh.

[17:14] <Jumpp> Yes, but Josh is a politics guy.

[17:14] <Jumpp> He's a knife fighter.

[17:14] <veenu> nice description

[17:15] <Jumpp> They bring that out more this season, BTW.

[17:15] <Jumpp> Anyway.

[17:15] <Jumpp> The point is that Libby isn't an economist or a public policy guy.

[17:15] <Jumpp> He's just a political strategist, and nobody's surprised that he'd be

both mean enough and dumb enough to pull such a stunt.

[17:16] <Jalynfane> It actually makes me happy that 5 of 6 reporters would not run

that story

[17:16] <veenu> takes arrogance to think you can get away with that kind of mafia

mentality in our white house.

[17:16] <Jalynfane> for whatever reason

[17:16] <Jumpp> Rumsfeld is an old pro. He surely takes national security too

seriously to attempt such a stunt in the first place, and would in any case be

aware of how illegal it is.

[17:16] <veenu> aye jaly

[17:16] <Jumpp> Much as I hate to say it, Cheney too is probably way too smart.

[17:16] <Jumpp> He has too much time in real policy positions to make a mistake that

dumb.